It is Impossible to Predict the Future

Some psychic claim to have the ability to predict the future, this often called, being, precognitive. However, I assert that it is impossible to predict the future. First of all, there is not just one future out, there are many probable futures. Now, if a psychic is accurate in predicting some aspect of the future, all that psychic can ever do, at best, is to predict the most probable future. I argue that the future, at its most determinate, involves at least three probable futures, where each probable future has an approximately probbility of :

Future A 30% probable Future B 40% probable Future C 30% probable


Now, let us say that some psychic, Silvia the Psychic, can see the most probable future, which is Future B , above, which has a 40% probability of actually taking place. Let us also assume that Silvia the Psychic actually sees and predicts that Future B will happen in 5 years from the date of the prediction. Then, Silvia the Psychic goes on the Oprah Winfrey show and makes public her prediction of the future to an audience of 5 million people. Now, at this point the probbility of Future B actually happening will start to change significantly, because, you see, many of the persons hearing the prediction will actually change their lives and their actions at that point in time, and in the immediate future in order to make the predicted Future B, as announced by Silvia the Psychic, more probable or less probable, based on each person's perceived rational self interest. So for example, let us say that Silvia the Psychic predicted that in 100 years, every person on Earth would suffocate to death from lack of Oxygen which has resulted from long term deforestation of the Earth's Forest's, with the result that there were not enough trees to produce oxygen to replenish the Earth's air. Hearing this, 500,000 people organized a political action committee and lobbied congress for legislation which required responsible tree farming, and ended clear cutting. Moreover, the group also got the United Nations to get a Treaty signed by all of its member Nations, to do the same thing. As a result of this, the probility of the Future B 40% mass suffocation scenario actually taking place in the future was quickly reduced to a mere 5%, and thus became a relatively improbable future, with other probable futures, having their probability increasing substantially. The foregoing scenario applies to any prediction of an alleged future, which is really probable future. Thus, even in a non-prediction situation, it is clear that any probable futures, increase and decrease in probability in significant ways all the time, without most people even knowing it.

(C)Copyright 2010 by Anthony J. Fejfar